As featured in
Geopolitical Intelligence
Research Focus Areas
Track Record
Our forecasts are scored against real-world outcomes. Sentinel analysts consistently outperform baseline prediction models.
Brier score accuracy across 1,200+ resolved forecasts (2021–2025)
Why Sentinel
Bespoke analysis tailored to your organisation's specific risk exposure and strategic priorities.
Evidence-based intelligence combining quantitative models with deep regional expertise.
Calibrated probability ranges for key variables, updated as new information emerges.
Structured outputs designed to integrate directly into your decision-making process.
Weekly Briefings
Taiwan Strait escalation dynamics following latest PLA exercises. Probability of kinetic action assessed at 8% over 90 days.
Great Power CompetitionEU Carbon Border Adjustment Phase 2 creates new trade friction. Three emerging-market exporters face existential pressure.
Energy & ClimateSahel security vacuum widens as Africa Corps establishes forward operating bases in Niger and Burkina Faso.
Regional FlashpointsNew evidence of advanced chip diversion through Southeast Asian intermediaries challenges US export control efficacy.
Tech & AI GovernanceGulf state realignment under stress as proxy conflicts test the Beijing-brokered Saudi-Iran rapprochement.
Regional FlashpointsLeadership
Our leadership team combines deep forecasting expertise with real-world intelligence experience.
Quantitative researcher and forecaster. Previously built forecasting infrastructure at QURI. Specialises in calibration, estimation, and decision-relevant modelling.
Former intelligence analyst with deep expertise in great-power dynamics and emerging market risk. Advises institutional investors and sovereign wealth funds.
Foresight Team